Forecasting the Impact of the Structure of Financing Sources on the Results of Production Activity in Agriculture

Abstract

The study conducted to assess the impact of the source of financing on the results of production activities of small and medium-sized businesses in agriculture in Kazakhstan is presented in the article. When building the model, the authors used the method of correlation and regression analysis, including calculations of pairwise regression, as well as the method of building statistical equations. Statistical data on the volume of financing of SMEs in agriculture by way of own funds, government resources (concessional lending, subsidies, and leasing), and non-state sources of financing such as borrowed funds from banks, microfinance organizations, credit partnerships, and leasing companies were used as the factors. Firstly, the results of the study showed that such factors as bank lending and leasing financing by private companies do not have a significant impact on production volumes. Secondly, of all the factors analyzed, the greatest impact on gross output was made by financing by microfinance organizations and credit partnerships, which determines and indicates the need for the development of non-state sources of financing. Thirdly, a comprehensive approach combining state financial support as well as available non-state financial resources is needed to achieve the strategic objectives of economic development and ensure the required level of food security.