The economic implications of psycho-emotional climate at schools: analyzing its impact on student performance in the monitoring of educational achievements (MEAS) program

Abstract

Introduction: This study comprehensively investigates the impact of school psycho-emotional climate on student performance in the Monitoring of Educational Achievements (MEAS) program in Kazakhstan from 2022 to 2024. It analyzes data from 537 schools and 120,452 students to uncover variations in school climate dimensions across contexts and their differential effects on academic outcomes. Methods: A mixed-methods approach is employed, combining multilevel quantitative analysis of MEAS scores and School Climate Survey data with qualitative analysis of open-ended responses and interviews. Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) is used to estimate school- and student-level effects, while dominance analysis, moderation analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, and structural equation modeling provide deeper insights into relative importance, differential impacts, economic returns, and societal implications of climate factors. Results: School climate dimensions collectively explain 19-24% of between-school variance in MEAS scores, with Teaching & Learning and Safety as the strongest predictors (β = 12.10-17.92, p < 0.001). Positive climates are especially beneficial for disadvantaged students, with effects nearly twice as large for low-income students. A one standard deviation improvement in school climate is associated with a 6.8 percentage point increase in tertiary education attainment, a 5.4 percentage point increase in professional employment, and a 7.2% increase in median earnings at the regional level. Benefit-cost ratios for school climate interventions range from 5.2 to 12.4. Discussion: The findings align with and extend prior research on the academic, social-emotional, and economic benefits of positive school climates, while highlighting the equity implications of climate disparities. Targeted interventions to improve key climate dimensions in high-needs schools are identified as a promising strategy to narrow achievement gaps and promote social mobility. Scientific Novelty: This study is the first large-scale investigation of school climate effects on standardized achievement in Kazakhstan, employing advanced multilevel techniques to yield novel insights into the mechanisms, moderators, and societal impacts of climate factors. Practical Significance: The results provide an evidence-based framework for educators, administrators, and policymakers to create supportive learning environments that foster educational equity and human capital development. Specific recommendations include prioritizing Teaching & Learning and Safety dimensions, implementing multi-tiered support systems, and investing in contextually-tailored interventions for the most disadvantaged schools and students.