THE USE OF GEOINFORMATION SYSTEMS IN FORECASTING GULLY EROSION ON THE TERRITORY OF THE NORTH KAZAKHSTAN REGION

Abstract

The materials of the publication reflect the importance of using geoinformation technologies for predicting ravines in the territory of the North Kazakhstan region. For the study, a section of the A16 Petropavlovsk-Zhezkazgan highway was chosen, where dozens of ravines with different growth rates are located. Satellite images for 2003, 2016, and 2019 were used for monitoring. A feature of the images is their detail and accuracy, which makes it possible to analyze the features of the structure and determine the dynamics of growth and the coordinates of the ravines. The calculations were made using the Google Earth program. To determine the dynamics and forecast of ravine erosion, the growth rate of the tops of ravines was determined according to the generally accepted method. Based on this technique, a model for predicting the growth rate of ravines in the Microsoft Excel program was developed. After entering the indicators in the Excel table, the model calculates the growth rate of the ravine and gives a forecast for the next 30 years. The model was developed for natural ravines, the calculations present data typical for the North Kazakhstan region. The accuracy of the model depends on many factors. These are soil density, coefficient of erosion resistance of soils, amount of precipitation, and presence of vegetation cover. The result of the calculation obtained by the developed model is visualized as a sinusoid of the growth of ravines for the studied and predicted period. The used geoinformation technologies make it possible to carry out complex monitoring studies of ravines to predict their dynamics within the boundaries of the North Kazakhstan region.