Comprehensive Scenario Analyses for Coal exit and Renewable Energy Development Planning of Kazakhstan using PyPSA-KZ

Abstract

This article focuses on the application of Python for Energy System Analysis (PyPSA) in modelling future energy scenarios for the Kazakhstan’s energy system. The study addresses the challenges inherent in Kazakhstan's energy sector and explores how PyPSA can play a pivotal role in supporting the country's transition to sustainable, green energy. In this paper, the PyPSA-KZ model of Kazakhstan power system is proposed for accurate energy modeling and investment planning for the period up to 2040. The model is adapted considering the characteristics of Kazakhstan's power plants, hourly demand profiles for each administrative zone, and marginal electricity generation costs for each power plant and cost of each energy carrier. Validation of the model is carried out by running the Business-as-Usual scenario for 2020 and comparing the results with official reports. After validation, three investment scenarios are studied: i) renewable energy with 30% share, ii) coal exit scenario, and iii) 30% RES share with transmission line expansion, followed by determining the cost-optimal solution for 2040. Across all scenarios, emphasis is placed on increasing the contribution of wind and solar energy. The outcomes of the scenario modeling hold significant implications for policy formulation, effective energy management, and strategic investment planning in Kazakhstan.