Information Diffusion Modeling in Social Networks: A Comparative Analysis of Delay Mechanisms Using Population Dynamics

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of information diffusion in social networks with time delay mechanisms. We first analyze real Reddit thread data, identifying limitations in the sample size. To overcome this, we develop synthetic network models with varied structural properties. Our approach tests three delay types (constant, uniform, exponential) across different network structures, using machine learning models to identify key factors influencing information coverage. The results show that spread probability consistently impacts diffusion across all datasets. Gradient Boosting models achieve R 2 = 0.847 on synthetic data. Random networks with a constant delay mechanism and high spread probability (0.4) maximize coverage. When verified against test data, peak speed time emerges as the strongest predictor (r = 0.995, p < 0.001). Our findings provide practical recommendations for optimizing information spread in social networks and demonstrate the value of integrating real and synthetic data in diffusion modeling.