Interconnections in the education–migration–labor market chain in Central and Eastern Europe

Abstract

This study examines the interconnections between transformations in the education sphere, migrations waves, and labor market in 2000–2021 based on a panel data set for 14 Central and Eastern European countries (7 – former members of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance; 5 – former republics of the USSR, and 2 – former republics of Yugoslavia). Statistical data were collected from the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the International Labour Organization databases. To describe this interconnection, a pool of parameters was formed. Those that cause the greatest variability were selected using exploratory factor analysis: for education – the number of teachers and students in higher education and public spending on education; for migration – the net migration flow, personal remittances sent and received; for labor market – unemployment rate and the share of highly educated people among the employed. Confirmatory factor analysis identified the most influential determinants: for education – the number of students in higher education; for migration – paid personal remittances; for labor market – unemployment rate. The covariance analysis demonstrated a robust direct correlation between education and migration (positive shifts in the education sector serve as a catalyst for pursuing superior employment opportunities or continuing education abroad). A relatively weak direct correlation was between education and the labor market (a more highly educated workforce has only a limited impact on the structure and dynamics of the labor market). Finally, a moderate inverse correlation was between migration and the labor market (deteriorating labor market conditions give rise to migration waves).