Assessment of the air transportation market in the economies of newly independent states and forecast of its development

Abstract

The air transportation market in the newly independent states is a dynamically developing sector that significantly influences economic growth and the integration of these countries into the global economy. The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between air transportation indicators and economic indicators, including GDP per capita. A comparative analysis was conducted across three periods: pre-pandemic (2016–2019), during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021), and postpandemic (2022–2024), using correlation and regression analysis, as well as the ARIMA time series forecasting model. A strong correlation (over 85%) was identified between passenger and cargo air transportation volumes and GDP per capita, while the regression model (R² = 0.962, p < 0.01) confirmed the statistical significance of these variables in explaining economic performance. Forecasts up to 2028 indicate growth in air transportation volumes and improvements in socioeconomic indicators. The results confirm the role of air transport as an indicator of economic development, providing a basis for developing strategies to optimize transportation policy and promote sustainable economic growth in the region under study.