Abstract:
The paper studies the problems of developing interconnected models of aggregates of complex chemical-technological systems (CTS) in conditions of scarcity and fuzziness of the initial information. Since the known methods of model development do not allow for solving these problems, we propose a systematic method that allows the development of a package of models of interconnected aggregates of complex CTS using the available information of a different nature. In the proposed method, formal and informal methods of system analysis are jointly used. Due to synergy and emergence, the proposed system allows the synthesis of the most adequate and effective CTS models using the knowledge, experience, and intuition of experts and other available data. Using the method, we have developed a package of models of interconnected reactors and used it in a case study for a reforming reactor and furnace of the Atyrau refinery catalytic reformer based on available statistical and fuzzy information. To study and optimize the operating modes of the reformer unit, a system of computer simulation and optimization of the reformer unit was created. Comparison of the obtained results of computer modeling and optimization with the results of known deterministic models shows the advantages of the proposed approach in the face of scarcity and fuzziness of the initial information. The importance and novelty of the proposed method lie in the possibility of developing a package of models of interrelated CTS units based on various types of available information. This allows one to systematically simulate and optimize the operating modes of the CTS. The practical significance of the results is that this case study can be successfully applied in the development of models of various technological units for oil refining, petrochemistry, and other industries.
