Abstract:
Introduction: This study comprehensively investigates the impact of school psycho-emotional
climate on student performance in the Monitoring of Educational Achievements (MEAS) program in
Kazakhstan from 2022 to 2024. It analyzes data from 537 schools and 120,452 students to uncover variations
in school climate dimensions across contexts and their differential effects on academic outcomes.
Methods: A mixed-methods approach is employed, combining multilevel quantitative analysis of MEAS
scores and School Climate Survey data with qualitative analysis of open-ended responses and interviews.
Hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) is used to estimate school- and student-level effects, while dominance
analysis, moderation analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis, and structural equation modeling provide deeper
insights into relative importance, differential impacts, economic returns, and societal implications of climate
factors.
Results: School climate dimensions collectively explain 19-24% of between-school variance in MEAS
scores, with Teaching & Learning and Safety as the strongest predictors (β = 12.10-17.92, p < 0.001).
Positive climates are especially beneficial for disadvantaged students, with effects nearly twice as large
for low-income students. A one standard deviation improvement in school climate is associated with a 6.8
percentage point increase in tertiary education attainment, a 5.4 percentage point increase in professional employment, and a 7.2% increase in median earnings at the regional level. Benefit-cost ratios for school
climate interventions range from 5.2 to 12.4.
Discussion: The findings align with and extend prior research on the academic, social-emotional, and
economic benefits of positive school climates, while highlighting the equity implications of climate
disparities. Targeted interventions to improve key climate dimensions in high-needs schools are identified
as a promising strategy to narrow achievement gaps and promote social mobility.
Scientific Novelty: This study is the first large-scale investigation of school climate effects on standardized
achievement in Kazakhstan, employing advanced multilevel techniques to yield novel insights into the
mechanisms, moderators, and societal impacts of climate factors.
Practical Significance: The results provide an evidence-based framework for educators, administrators, and
policymakers to create supportive learning environments that foster educational equity and human capital
development. Specific recommendations include prioritizing Teaching & Learning and Safety dimensions,
implementing multi-tiered support systems, and investing in contextually-tailored interventions for the most
disadvantaged schools and students.
